Match Analysis: Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-10
- Time: 2:10 AM UTC
- Location: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
Game Overview
The Phoenix Suns (5-5) are favored to extend their three-game home win streak against the struggling New Orleans Pelicans (2-7). The Suns are significantly better at home (4-1), while the Pelicans are 1-5 on the road. Phoenix is a heavy favorite on both moneyline and spread, with the game total set around 228.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Suns have won three straight at home and are coming off a quality road win in Los Angeles. The Pelicans have lost 14 of their last 16, are poor defensively (allowing 121.3 ppg, 49.8% FG), and their only recent bright spot has been individual scoring from Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson[5]. Phoenix is more consistent on both ends, with Devin Booker averaging 29.3 ppg on 50% shooting[6].
- In their last meeting (Feb 28, 2025), the Suns won 125-108 as 9.5-point favorites. Recent matchups have favored the Suns at home, but the Pelicans have occasionally kept it close on the road[3].
- No major injury news reported for either team affecting key rotation players.
- No significant external factors reported. The Suns' strong home-court advantage is notable.
- The Suns are looking to build momentum in a tight Western Conference race, while the Pelicans need to find answers after a deeply disappointing start. Motivation is higher for Phoenix to avoid a home letdown.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -295 / +240 | Phoenix Suns ML | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | -8 (-114) / +8 (-106) | Phoenix Suns -8 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 228.5 (-112) / Under 228.5 (-108) | Over 228.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Phoenix Suns -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 228.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 228.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Suns' superior home form, scoring punch, and defensive edge over a vulnerable Pelicans squad make them the clear value side in all markets. Expect Phoenix to win comfortably, though recent Pelicans have shown some offensive spark (mostly individual).
Predicted Score: Phoenix 121, New Orleans 111