Match Analysis: Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 1:10 AM UTC
- Location: Xcel Energy Center, Saint Paul, Minnesota
Game Overview
The Minnesota Wild (6-7-3) host the Calgary Flames (4-10-2) in a late-night NHL matchup. The Wild are in better recent form, winning two consecutive home games and coming off a 5-2 road victory, while the Flames were shut out 4-0 in their last outing and struggle both offensively (2.19 goals/game) and defensively (3.25 goals allowed/game, 23rd in the league). Minnesota is a clear favorite at home, but Calgary has historically performed well in this matchup, going 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Minnesota is trending upwards with two straight home wins and a more balanced attack (five goal scorers last game). Calgary is inconsistent, ranking near the bottom in both goals for and against, and was shut out last game despite leading in shots. Minnesota's recent totals have trended over, especially at home.
- Calgary holds a 6-2-2 advantage in the last 10 meetings, but Minnesota has the momentum at home this season.
- Calgary's Kevin Bahl is questionable with an undisclosed injury. No significant injuries reported for Minnesota.
- No major external factors (travel, scheduling quirks) noted. Both teams have standard travel schedules.
- Minnesota is motivated to climb the standings and capitalize on home-ice advantage. Calgary seeks to bounce back from a shutout loss, but their recent form and league position suggest desperation may not be enough.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wild -166, Flames +140 | Wild ML | β β β ββ 64% |
| Spread | Wild -1.5 (+154), Flames +1.5 (-185) | Flames +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 6.5 (+110), Under 6.5 (-130) | Over 6.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Wild 54% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6.5 43% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Minnesota Wild at 54% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Minnesota Wild are the stronger side in current form and are expected to secure a home win, but Calgary's recent H2H success and Minnesota's inconsistency as a big favorite (-170 or shorter ML) suggest a closer game than expected. The over is supported by Minnesota's recent goal totals at home and Calgary's porous defense.
Predicted Score: Minnesota Wild 4 - Calgary Flames 3
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