Match Analysis: Hershey Bears vs Rochester Americans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hershey Bears Home Arena
Game Overview
The Hershey Bears host the Rochester Americans in a tightly contested AHL matchup. Rochester enters as the slight betting favorite based on recent odds, but historical trends show Hershey performing strongly at home against Rochester.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hershey Bears have a balanced recent form with 5 wins and 5 losses in their last 10 games. Rochester Americans have been somewhat inconsistent but hold a slight edge with key wins recently, including a 6-4 win over Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.
- Historically, Hershey leads the head-to-head with 20 wins at home against Rochester's 15 wins away, with an average match total of 5.64 goals. Hershey has not lost in regular time in 8 of the last 9 meetings with Rochester.
- No publicly noted major injuries affecting starting lineups for either team; some secondary players will be involved for Hershey which could affect their usual gameplay.
- The match is at Hershey's home, giving them a home-ice advantage. Both teams appear motivated with no major external disruptions impacting play.
- Both teams are competitive with playoff aspirations; Hershey's recent 'underdog' motivation at home against a favored Rochester side is a key factor.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hershey Bears: +104, Rochester Americans: -152 | Rochester Americans | β β β ββ 63% |
| Spread | Hershey Bears +1.5: -250, Rochester Americans -1.5: +175 | Rochester Americans -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: -112, Under 5.5: -122 | Under 5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rochester Americans -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Rochester Americans to win; Spread: Rochester -1.5; Over/Under: Under 5.5 goals
Predicted Score: Rochester Americans 3 – 1 Hershey Bears