Match Analysis: Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:10 AM UTC
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Game Overview
The Denver Nuggets (6-2) host the struggling Indiana Pacers (1-7) in a matchup where Denver is a heavy favorite with a strong home record and a three-game win streak. Indiana has lost seven of their last eight games and faces key injury-related uncertainties.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denver is 6-2 overall and 4-0 at home, riding a three-game win streak, while Indiana is 1-7 overall with a 0-3 away record, struggling offensively and defensively.
- Denver has dominated recently, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings against Indiana and holding a comfortable edge in their previous matchups.
- Indiana has key players Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard listed as game-time decisions; Denverβs roster is healthier with Monte Morris rejoining for the game.
- The home-court advantage at Ball Arena favors Denver; the game is scheduled late at night for Indiana (9 PM ET), which may impact the Pacers' performance.
- Denver looks to extend their dominant run and build postseason momentum, while Indiana seeks to reverse their poor start and break their losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -590 | Denver Nuggets | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | -114 | Denver Nuggets -11.5 | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | -110 | Over 233.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Nuggets -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 233.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 233.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denver Nuggets to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -11.5 spread, and the game to go over 233.5 points.
Predicted Score: Denver Nuggets 129 – Indiana Pacers 105