Match Analysis: Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Southern Utah (Home)
Game Overview
The matchup features two teams both 0-1 on the season facing off early, with Southern Utah playing at home. Both teams lost their previous games on the road by double digits. The line is tight with moneyline odds close to even and a moderate spread, suggesting an evenly matched contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both Southern Utah and UT Rio Grande Valley started the season 0-1, with Southern Utah losing 81-64 at Arizona State and UTRGV losing 96-81 at Baylor, indicating both teams struggled offensively and defensively in tough early matchups.
- Recent history favors Southern Utah with 3 wins to UTRGV's 1 over their past 4 meetings, but their last encounter saw UTRGV win 78-73. Southern Utah have had success against the spread on both the road and overall recently.
- No significant injury reports available affecting key players for either team, indicating lineups should be near full strength.
- The game is on Southern Utahβs home court which tends to be an advantage. Public betting heavily favors Southern Utah on the moneyline with 100% bets, potentially inflating their line price.
- Both teams look motivated to avoid 0-2 starts. Southern Utahβs recent cover trends and home advantage could give them a slight psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Utah Thunderbirds: -102, UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: -118 | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Southern Utah Thunderbirds +1.5: -115, UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros -1.5: -105 | Southern Utah Thunderbirds +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 159.5: -115, Under 159.5: -105 | Under 159.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Utah Thunderbirds 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 159.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 159.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Take Southern Utah Thunderbirds on the moneyline and under 159.5 points total for highest expected value plays given the defensive struggles and modest scoring expectations.
Predicted Score: Southern Utah 78 – UT Rio Grande Valley 74