Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs San Francisco Dons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Game Overview
Non-conference matchup between two mid-major powers, both coming off strong seasons. Memphis, ACC favorites last season (29-6, 16-2) and 13-2 at home, host West Coast Conference's San Francisco, who outclassed weak UC Santa Cruz in a 98-53 rout. Last H2H was a close Memphis win, 68-64, but with Memphis overcoming a poor first half with a strong second half. Game total set high at 156.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis was a high-scoring, balanced offensive team last season (79.9 PPG, 47.2% FG, 37.6% 3P) but turnover-prone (338th in TOs). Defensively average (223rd in scoring defense). San Francisco enters 1-0 after a dominant but uninformative win. Memphis is unproven this season but has more top-end talent (PJ Haggerty 21.7 PPG, Dain Dainja 14.6 PPG last year)[3]. San Franciscoβs leading scorer is Marcus Thomas (19.3 PPG)[5]. Both teams above average in pace and three-point shooting.
- Memphis won last matchup 68-64, overcoming a slow start. Both teams return core players. Minimal H2H sample size but Memphis has home-court advantage and more recent postseason pedigree[1][2].
- No reported major injuries affecting either roster.
- Memphis home opener, typically a high-energy environment. San Francisco traveling cross-continent. Both teams motivated for early-season statement win.
- Memphis looking to start strong in front of home fans. San Francisco wants to prove itself as a true mid-major contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis -192, San Francisco +158 | Memphis Tigers | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Memphis -3.5 -110, San Francisco +3.5 -110 | Memphis Tigers -3.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 156.5 -110, Under 156.5 -110 | Over 156.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 156.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 156.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis wins a competitive, high-scoring game, covering the spread in a contest that goes over the total. San Francisco keeps it close due to shooting and pace, but Memphisβs talent, home court, and second-half resilience are decisive.
Predicted Score: Memphis Tigers 83, San Francisco Dons 78