Match Analysis: Tennessee Volunteers vs Northern Kentucky Norse – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN
Game Overview
Tennessee Volunteers host Northern Kentucky Norse in a non-conference matchup. Tennessee enters as overwhelming favorites, with both teams coming off strong opening wins. The game features a massive point spread and a moderate total, reflecting the perceived gap in talent and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tennessee dominated Mercer 76-61, showing strong defense and balanced scoring. Northern Kentucky crushed Cincinnati Clermont 126-69, but the opponent was significantly weaker. Tennessee ranks 10th in points allowed (63.1) and 167th in points scored (74.0), while Northern Kentucky is 239th in scoring (71.8) and 182nd in points allowed (72.0). Tennessee is elite defensively, while Northern Kentucky struggles against quality competition.
- No recent H2H data is available for this matchup. Both teams are 1-0 on the season, but their opponents were vastly different in quality.
- No injuries reported for either team.
- Tennessee is playing at home, where they have a strong ATS record. Northern Kentucky is on the road, where their ATS record is poor (.267 last season). The game is early in the season, so both teams are still finding their rhythm.
- Tennessee is motivated to establish dominance early in the season and protect their home court. Northern Kentucky is likely to use this as a measuring stick against a top-tier opponent, but may struggle to keep pace.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -30000, away: 4000 | Tennessee Volunteers | β β β β β 96% |
| Spread | home: -27.5, away: 27.5 | Tennessee Volunteers -27.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | over: 140.5, under: 140.5 | Over 140.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 140.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 140.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tennessee will win comfortably, covering the large spread and pushing the game over the total. Northern Kentucky's offense is not efficient enough to keep up with Tennessee's defense, and Tennessee's balanced attack should score enough to push the total over.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 78, Northern Kentucky 62