Match Analysis: Dayton Flyers vs UMBC Retrievers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Game Overview
Dayton Flyers host UMBC Retrievers in a non-conference matchup at UD Arena. Both teams enter 1-0, but Dayton is a clear favorite with a wide spread and heavy moneyline odds. The game is expected to be a showcase of Dayton's early-season dominance and UMBC's defensive promise against a much stronger opponent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dayton opened with a dominant 88-48 win over Canisius, shooting 52.9% from the field, forcing 19 turnovers, and grabbing 33 rebounds. UMBC defeated Penn St.-York 74-53, showing solid defense but facing a much weaker opponent. Dayton’s efficiency, rebounding, and turnover control are significant advantages.
- No prior head-to-head history between Dayton and UMBC.
- No reported injuries for either team.
- Game is at UD Arena, a strong home court for Dayton. Early season, so depth and bench play may be inconsistent for both teams.
- Dayton is motivated to build on a strong start and establish non-conference momentum. UMBC is motivated to prove themselves against a higher-level opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -10000, away: 3000 | Dayton Flyers | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Spread | home: -23.5, away: 23.5 | UMBC Retrievers +23.5 | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Over/under | over: 152.5, under: 152.5 | Under 152.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dayton Flyers -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dayton will win comfortably, but the spread is too wide to confidently recommend. The total is likely to stay under due to UMBC’s defensive focus and Dayton’s potential for slower pace.
Predicted Score: Dayton 78, UMBC 70
