Match Analysis: Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-10
- Time: 1:20 AM UTC
- Location: Los Angeles Chargers Home Stadium
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) in a key AFC West vs AFC North matchup. The Chargers enter as 3-point favorites with a total set at 45.5 points. Both teams have notable injuries affecting their rushing attack and some key skill positions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chargers are on a 2-game win streak but have a 2-3 record ATS recently; Steelers are 5-3 overall but missing key offensive players. Chargers have scored an average of 23.9 points per game, Steelers 25.3.
- Recent matchups lean slightly in favor of Chargers at home. Chargers have shown ability to cover a 3-point spread against mid-tier AFC opponents.
- Chargers lost RB Najee Harris (Achilles), Hassan Haskins (hamstring), and Omarion Hampton (ankle). Steelers injured WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (calf) and possibly QB Skylar Thompson (hamstring) is questionable.
- Chargers play at home with an expected crowd advantage. Sunday night spotlight may increase intensity. Weather expected to be clear, no major disruptions.
- Chargers have 76% playoff odds; a win secures stronger positioning. Steelers fighting to keep pace in AFC North, potentially desperate to keep playoff hopes alive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -155, away: +130 | Los Angeles Chargers | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | home: -105, away: -115 | Chargers -3 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -105, under: -115 | Over 45.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 45.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Chargers to win straight up, cover the -3 spread, and the total to go over 45.5 points.
Predicted Score: Chargers 26 – Steelers 20