Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)
Game Overview
Flamengo, in strong recent form and buoyed by home advantage, hosts an injury-hit Santos side that has struggled this season but delivered a recent 1-0 upset victory over Flamengo in July 2025. The gulf in league positions, form, and squad depth sets the stage for a likely Flamengo victory, but Santos’ counterattacking threat and historic upset potential can’t be ignored.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo is undefeated in 80% of their last 10 matches across all competitions and sits higher in the league table[3]. Santos, by contrast, has shown inconsistency, though they pulled off a notable 1-0 home win against Flamengo in their last meeting[2].
- Flamengo leads the overall head-to-head with 13 wins to Santos’ 9, with 9 draws[1]. Recent meetings have been close, but Flamengo has historically performed better at home, while Santos’ July 2025 win may give them psychological edge[1][2].
- Flamengo is missing Erick Pulgar and Michael due to injury[1]. Santos is without key players Gabriel Bontempo, Neymar, and Victor Hugo, which weakens their attacking and defensive options[1].
- The match is at the Maracanã, a notorious fortress for Flamengo, with passionate home support[1]. No major external factors (weather, travel fatigue) reported.
- Flamengo is chasing the top of the table and will be highly motivated, especially after the recent loss to Santos. Santos, with nothing to play for except pride and avoiding relegation tension, may lack same urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo -325, Santos +868, Draw +445 | Flamengo (Win) | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Flamengo -1.5 -106, Santos +1.5 -114 | Flamengo (-1.5) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 +106, Under 2.75 -126 | Under 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is the clear favorite based on form, squad depth, and home advantage, but Santos’ recent upset and historical competitive edge in this fixture suggest a low-scoring, tight affair is possible.
Predicted Score: 1-0