Match Analysis: Braga vs Moreirense FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga, Portugal
Game Overview
Braga hosts Moreirense in a Portugal Primeira Liga match where Braga, historically dominant at home with a long unbeaten streak against Moreirense, aims to extend their superior recent form. Braga ranks 7th and Moreirense 4th in the league, with Braga showing stronger attack and defensive stats overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Braga has scored an average of 2.5 goals per match and conceded 1.0 in recent fixtures, maintaining a 4-match unbeaten run. Moreirense, with 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded on average, has shown inconsistency with only one win in the last four away games. Braga's attack is more potent and consistent.
- Braga has won 20 of the last 27 meetings, including an 11-match unbeaten streak against Moreirense (11 wins). They have scored at least 2 goals in the majority of these encounters, reflecting a strong historical dominance.
- Braga's Jonatas Noro is out injured, while Moreirense has no notable player absences reported.
- Braga plays at home at Estádio Municipal de Braga, where they have a strong winning record. No major external disruptions or weather concerns are reported. Moreirense traveled for an away match which may contribute to slight fatigue but no significant disadvantage is expected.
- Braga, positioned 7th, need points to climb the table and break into European qualification spots. Moreirense, 4th, also target a win to consolidate their position. Braga's recent better form and home advantage provide them with a slight motivational edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Braga: -265, Moreirense FC: 700, Draw: 375 | Braga | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Braga -1.25: -115, Moreirense +1.25: -105 | Braga -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -102, Under 2.75: -118 | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Braga -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Braga to win outright (Moneyline), cover -1.25 goals spread, and over 2.75 total goals
Predicted Score: 3-1