Match Analysis: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Miami Dolphins Home Stadium
Game Overview
The Buffalo Bills (6-2) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-7) with the Bills as clear favorites based on form, stats, and recent matchups. The Bills feature a strong rushing attack and defense, while the Dolphins have struggled offensively and defensively this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buffalo leads with the NFL's top rushing attack (161.5 yards per game) and ranks 3rd in points scored. Miami ranks low in both scoring (26th) and defensive metrics, especially rushing defense (3rd worst). Bills QB Allen typically performs very well vs. Miami.
- Buffalo has won the last six meetings with Miami, including a recent strong win in Week 3. Historically, Bills players, especially Allen, have scored multiple touchdowns vs. the Dolphins.
- No major injury concerns reported for Buffalo. Miami's offense has struggled with turnovers and limited production, impacting their competitiveness.
- Miami is playing at home but coming off a heavy loss to Baltimore. Buffalo is riding momentum after a late win over the Chiefs and exhibits strong overall team health and cohesion.
- The Bills aim to solidify playoff positioning and maintain momentum. Miami is motivated to rebound after recent losses but lacks the depth and recent success to pose a serious upset threat.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills: -470, Miami Dolphins: +360 | Buffalo Bills | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -9.5: -110, Miami Dolphins +9.5: -110 | Buffalo Bills -9.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5: -105, Under 50.5: -115 | Over 50.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 50.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Buffalo Bills moneyline, Buffalo Bills -9.5 spread, Over 50.5 points
Predicted Score: Buffalo Bills 31 – Miami Dolphins 17