Match Analysis: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Game Overview
A divisional NFL matchup between the Houston Texans, struggling at 3-5, and the Jacksonville Jaguars, stronger at 5-3 and favored to win. The Jaguars seek to extend their recent momentum, while the Texans aim to leverage home advantage and cover a tight spread in a low total scoring environment.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Jaguars have a 5-3 record and recently snapped a two-game losing streak with a narrow overtime win, showing offensive improvement. The Texans are 3-5 and have lost two of their last three games but have shown some resilience at home.
- Earlier in the season, the Jaguars won 17-10 as 1.5-point favorites at home. Historically, recent clashes between the teams have trended towards the under with low scoring, and their matchups tend to be physical and closely contested.
- No critical injuries reported affecting key starters on either team. Both sides appear relatively healthy heading into this divisional clash.
- Game played at Houston's NRG Stadium with mild weather (~70Β°F) and no rain forecasted. Home crowd support for Texans may provide a slight edge in motivation.
- The Jaguars aim to secure an AFC South division advantage and build playoff positioning, motivated by recent form. The Texans, needing a divisional win to keep playoff hopes alive, will be highly motivated at home to upset the favored Jaguars.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Texans: -102, Jacksonville Jaguars: -118 | Houston Texans | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.5: -115, Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5: -105 | Houston Texans +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 37.5: -108, Under 37.5: -112 | Over 37.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Texans 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 37.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 37.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Texans win; Spread: Texans +1.5; Over/Under: Over 37.5
Predicted Score: Texans 24 – Jaguars 20