Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 3:45 PM UTC
- Location: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Game Overview
AZ Alkmaar hosts PSV Eindhoven in a pivotal Eredivisie clash. Both teams are in strong form, with AZ boasting five consecutive league wins and PSV riding a five-game winning streak domestically. PSV is chasing the league leaders, while AZ remains unbeaten at home. The match promises high intensity, attacking football, and significant implications for the title race.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar has shown remarkable consistency with five straight league victories, but suffered a 3-1 loss in the Europa Conference League midweek. PSV Eindhoven is dominant, winning five consecutive Eredivisie matches and averaging over 3 goals per game. PSV also drew 1-1 in the Champions League midweek, showing resilience.
- Recent H2H meetings are tight, with the last encounter ending in a 2-2 draw. PSV has won 16 of the last 20 meetings, but AZ has been competitive at home, with several draws and narrow losses.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are at full strength, with key attackers like Dennis Man (PSV) in excellent form.
- AZ is playing at home with strong crowd support. PSV is traveling after a midweek European fixture, but their squad depth and recent form suggest fatigue will not be a major factor.
- PSV is chasing the league leaders and cannot afford to drop points. AZ is determined to maintain their unbeaten home record and challenge for European spots. Both teams are highly motivated.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 195, away: 111, draw: 300 | PSV Eindhoven | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -105, away: -115 | PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: 100, under: -120 | Over 3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | PSV Eindhoven -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
PSV Eindhoven will win a high-scoring match, with both teams finding the net. AZ will push forward, but PSV's superior attacking quality and depth will prove decisive.
Predicted Score: 2-3