Match Analysis: CF Estrela vs Nacional – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Gomes
Game Overview
A tightly contested Primeira Liga match between CF Estrela, struggling at home with a poor record, and Nacional, slightly better overall but inconsistent away.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estrela Amadora is 13th in the league with 10 points from 10 games, showing inconsistency and a weak home record. Nacional sits 9th with 11 points, showing slightly better form but also inconsistency, especially away.
- Historically close matchups favor Nacional slightly, with recent results indicating low probability of decisive wins for either side.
- No critical absences reported for either side; teams expected to field strong lineups.
- No reported adverse weather or external issues; neutral conditions favor a balanced contest.
- Both teams under pressure to improve standings—Estrela to avoid relegation proximity; Nacional to secure mid-table stability.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +178, away: +162, draw: +212 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | home: 0 -102, away: 0 -118 | Nacional 0 Spread | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | over: 2.25 -105, under: 2.25 -115 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw 25% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Draw at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Draw on moneyline, Nacional on spread, Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-1