Match Analysis: AVS Futebol SAD vs Gil Vicente – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio do CD das Aves, Vila das Aves, Portugal
Game Overview
AVS Futebol SAD faces Gil Vicente in a Primeira Liga clash with both teams in contrasting form. Gil Vicente sits 4th with a strong defensive record, while AVS is near the relegation zone with poor recent results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Gil Vicente is in excellent form, winning three consecutive matches and boasting the league's best defense (4 goals conceded in 10 games, 8 clean sheets). AVS is in a five-game losing streak, with only 22 goals scored and 48 conceded in 29 matches. Gil Vicente's recent 1-0 win over Santa Clara highlights their defensive solidity and ability to grind out results.
- The last meeting ended 1-0 in favor of AVS, but Gil Vicente has won the majority of recent encounters. Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring games in their H2H, with several matches ending 1-0 or 0-0.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- AVS is playing at home, but their home form is poor (55% possession and 5 shots on target in their last home game, but still lost). Gil Vicente has shown resilience on the road, winning away matches despite lower possession.
- Gil Vicente is fighting for a top-four finish and European qualification, while AVS is battling to avoid relegation. Both teams have strong motivation, but Gil Vicente's recent form and defensive record give them a clear edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 395, away: -136, draw: 250 | Gil Vicente | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: 75 -120, away: -0.75 100 | Gil Vicente -0.75 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: 2.25 -108, under: 2.25 -112 | Under 2.25 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gil Vicente 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 36% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gil Vicente to win and keep a clean sheet. Their defensive strength and AVS's attacking struggles make a 1-0 or 2-0 away win the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: AVS 0-1 Gil Vicente