Match Analysis: Brentford vs Newcastle United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford
Game Overview
Brentford hosts Newcastle United in a mid-table EPL clash closely matched in league standing and points, with both sides eager to climb the table. Brentford's strong home form contrasts with Newcastle’s ongoing search for an away victory this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brentford holds a respectable home record with 3 wins from 5 matches, while Newcastle has won 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions but still struggles away in the league this season.
- Newcastle has historically dominated this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, adding confidence to their potential to win despite current away struggles.
- Brentford’s squad is nearly at full strength with key players including Benjamin Arthur expected to feature. Newcastle’s injury situation is stable with no major absences reported.
- Both teams are under pressure to secure points to avoid slipping deeper into the bottom half; Brentford benefits from the home crowd and familiarity of the Gtech Community Stadium.
- Both teams are closely matched on points (12th vs. 13th), boosting motivation equally to climb the table, with Newcastle looking to break away from poor away form and Brentford aiming to maintain their upward home trajectory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | brentford: +185, newcastle: +145, draw: +240 | Newcastle United | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | brentford_0: +110, newcastle_0: -130 | Newcastle United 0 spread (Draw No Bet) | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | over_2.5: -122, under_2.5: +102 | Over 2.5 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Newcastle United 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Newcastle United at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Newcastle United moneyline win represents the highest expected value due to recent form, historical H2H dominance, and attractive American odds.
Predicted Score: 1-2