Match Analysis: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Villa Park
Game Overview
Aston Villa will host Bournemouth in a Premier League clash at Villa Park. Villa sit in the top 5 with a solid recent form, while Bournemouth are mid-table with a mixed record. Both teams have scoring potential but Villa have a slight defensive edge and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 5 games and 3-1 against the spread recently; Bournemouth sit lower in the table with fewer points (15 vs 18 for Villa) and a less consistent recent form.
- Previous matchups indicate balanced competition but Aston Villa have had the upper hand recently, including home performances shown by 3-1 ATS record.
- No major injury concerns reported that would severely impact either sideβs starting XI.
- Villa playing at home (Villa Park), with stronger public betting interest reflected by 73% bets on Villa; no adverse weather or travel factors noted.
- Villa have a higher position in the table and motivation to consolidate top 5 status; Bournemouth motivated to improve mid-table standing but less so than Villa.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 120, away: 230, draw: 240 | Home | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | home: -112, away: -108 | Aston Villa -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aston Villa 87% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Aston Villa at 87% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aston Villa to win
Predicted Score: 2-1