Match Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: City Ground, West Bridgford
Game Overview
Nottingham Forest hosts Leeds United in a tightly contested EPL fixture between two teams struggling offensively and fighting relegation, with both sides demonstrating solid defensive shapes but low scoring rates overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams have scored less than one goal per game on average recently, with Nottingham Forest showing improved defensive organization under Sean Dyche but limited attacking threat, while Leeds United have lost consecutive away matches and face key injuries impacting defense and attack.
- Leeds have a slight edge in recent meetings, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters, but the last match at City Ground ended in a narrow 1-0 Forest victory; previous games have tended to be low scoring with tendency towards under 2.5 goals.
- Leeds face multiple absences including key players Joe Rodon (DEF), Karl Darlow (GK), Gabriel Gudmundsson (DEF), and Joe Gelhardt (F) out with injuries or illness. Nottingham Forest have a relatively healthier squad with fewer injury concerns.
- Nottingham Forest played a Europa League match midweek ending 0-0 and may have slight fatigue, but home advantage at City Ground typically helps them. Weather and pitch conditions appear normal with no extreme factors reported.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points to escape relegation danger; Nottingham Forest have home support and recent form is slightly steadier, while Leeds are under pressure after away losses and must respond positively.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nottingham Forest +122 / Draw +235 / Leeds United +230 | Nottingham Forest | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Nottingham Forest -0.25 -110 / Leeds United +25 -110 | Nottingham Forest -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 -122 / Under 2.25 +102 | Under 2.25 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nottingham Forest 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nottingham Forest to win the moneyline, cover the spread at -0.25, and an Under 2.25 total goals outcome
Predicted Score: 1-0