Match Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Game Overview
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1, No. 4) host LSU Tigers (5-3) in a pivotal SEC matchup. Both teams feature top-25 scoring defenses, but Alabama enters as a heavy favorite due to superior recent form and head-to-head dominance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama has won 7 of 8, including a 29-22 road win over South Carolina. LSU has lost 2 of their last 3, including a 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M. Alabamaβs defense has allowed more than 24 points only once this season.
- Alabama has won 4 of the last 6 meetings, including the last two by a combined 31 points. Their most recent win was 42-28 at home, and they won 42-13 at LSU last year.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both squads are at full strength.
- Alabama is at home, where they have a dominant record. LSU is on the road, which has been a challenge for them this season. Weather is expected to be clear.
- Alabama is fighting for a playoff spot and SEC supremacy. LSU is trying to avoid a third straight loss and salvage their season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -375, away: 295 | Alabama Crimson Tide | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | home: -10 -105, away: 10 -115 | Alabama Crimson Tide -10 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | over: 49.5 -108, under: 49.5 -112 | Under 49.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 29% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama will win decisively, covering the spread and keeping the game under the total due to their stifling defense and LSUβs recent offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: 31-17