Match Analysis: Miles Johns vs Daniel Marcos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 9:45 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Miles Johns faces Daniel Marcos in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 111. Marcos is the betting favorite, with superior striking volume and accuracy, while Johns brings strong wrestling and physical power. The fight is expected to be a stand-up battle with both fighters capable of finishing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Daniel Marcos lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, compared to Johns' 3.38 at 44%. Marcos also has a higher finish rate and more recent momentum, while Johns has shown vulnerability in striking exchanges.
- No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no crowd advantage. Both fighters are in their prime and have prepared for a high-paced bout.
- Marcos is coming off a loss and will be highly motivated to rebound, while Johns seeks to reestablish himself after a narrow defeat. Both fighters have strong incentives to perform.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Daniel Marcos: -198, Miles Johns: 164 | Daniel Marcos | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Daniel Marcos: -3.5, Miles Johns: 3.5 | Daniel Marcos -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5, Under: 2.5 | Over 2.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Daniel Marcos -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Daniel Marcos wins by decision in a competitive, high-volume striking battle that goes the distance.
Predicted Score: Daniel Marcos wins by unanimous decision, 29-28, 29-28, 29-28