Match Analysis: Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton
Game Overview
The CFL East Final features the Hamilton Tiger-Cats hosting the Montreal Alouettes in a high-stakes division championship. Both teams are coming off strong playoff performances, with Montreal riding a wave of momentum and Hamilton enjoying a first-round bye and home-field advantage. The Alouettes are favored by the sportsbooks, but the matchup is razor-close, with both teams having split their regular-season meetings and key injuries impacting the defensive depth of Montreal.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montreal enters the game with momentum, having just defeated Winnipeg 42-33 in the semifinal, led by Davis Alexander's 384-yard passing performance. Hamilton, meanwhile, won the East by two points and is rested after a bye week. Both teams have shown the ability to score, but Montreal's recent form and offensive firepower give them a slight edge.
- Hamilton won both regular-season matchups, but Montreal's starting QB Davis Alexander was injured for both games. With Alexander healthy, Montreal's record is 11-0 as a starter, and the Alouettes have not lost a meaningful game since September 6, when James Morgan started in Alexander's absence.
- Montreal's defensive tackle Mustafa Johnson is doubtful with a shoulder injury, which could impact their ability to stop the run. Hamilton is reportedly healthy and rested after their bye week.
- Hamilton will have a hostile home crowd, but Montreal is used to playing in tough environments. The weather is expected to be mild, with no major impact on play.
- Hamilton is seeking to end a 25-year championship drought, while Montreal is aiming to return to the Grey Cup after a strong playoff run. Both teams are highly motivated, but Montreal's recent success and Alexander's undefeated record as a starter provide a psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 132, away: -160 | Montreal Alouettes | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: 2.5 102, away: -2.5 -124 | Montreal Alouettes -2.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 53.5 -110, under: 53.5 -110 | Over 53.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montreal Alouettes -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 53.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 53.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montreal Alouettes to win outright and cover the spread, with the game going over the total.
Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 31, Hamilton Tiger-Cats 27