Match Analysis: Parma vs AC Milan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Game Overview
AC Milan enter as strong favorites against a struggling Parma side. Milan have been in very good form with a solid unbeaten run, while Parma sit near the bottom of the league with poor offensive output and recent losses. Milan are expected to control the game and secure a win.
Key Factors to Consider
- AC Milan are 6-1-3 with consistent form and efficient scoring, while Parma are 1-5-4 struggling to score with only 5 goals in 10 matches and have lost consecutive games.
- In 9 recent matchups, Milan has dominated with 6 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss. Last season their home win (3-2) and previous Parma upset (2-1) highlight a clear Milan overall advantage.
- No significant injuries reported for Milan; Parma have key defensive absences which weaken their ability to hold off Milanβs attack.
- Parmaβs home advantage is minimal due to poor recent home form. Milanβs motivation to maintain a top-table position adds pressure to perform.
- Milan aim to extend their unbeaten streak and strengthen title contention prospects. Parma are fighting to escape relegation but lack confidence and form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -162 / 460 / 285 | AC Milan | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | -0.75 AC Milan -125 / +75 Parma +105 | AC Milan -0.75 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | -118 Over 2.25 / -102 Under 2.25 | Under 2.25 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AC Milan to win on the moneyline, covering the spread, and the match total going under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 0-2