Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Prediction
NCAAF in American Football
Match Analysis: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
Game Overview
This Sun Belt Conference matchup features the 6-2 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles visiting the 5-4 Arkansas State Red Wolves. Both teams are riding winning streaks with Southern Miss undefeated in conference play and Arkansas State showing strong recent form. The Golden Eagles are favored on the moneyline and spread, but Arkansas State has won the last two head-to-head contests.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southern Miss has won 4 consecutive games and holds a 6-2 record with strong offensive output. Arkansas State has also won 4 straight games, bringing momentum and confidence into this home game despite a slightly worse record (5-4). Southern Miss defense ranks top 10 in passing success rate, challenging Arkansas State's weaker passing offense.
- Arkansas State has dominated recent meetings, winning 2 of the last 3 and both matchups last year by comfortable margins (44-28 and 44-37). This gives Arkansas State a psychological edge despite Southern Miss's better current season form.
- No significant injury updates affecting key starters reported for either team, suggesting both squads will be near full strength.
- Game played at Arkansas State's home stadium with mild weather (67Β°F, no rain, light wind), favoring the home side. Southern Miss has a slight disadvantage from travel but has managed away wins recently.
- Both teams are motivated to improve conference standing. Arkansas State may have added motivation from previous head-to-head wins and home crowd support. Southern Miss wants to maintain its conference superiority and extend current winning streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves: +160, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: -192 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Arkansas State Red Wolves +4.5: -112, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -4.5: -108 | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -4.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 55.5: -108, Under 55.5: -112 | Over 55.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 55.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles win
Predicted Score: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 31 – 24 Arkansas State Red Wolves