Match Analysis: Excelsior vs Heracles Almelo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Game Overview
Excelsior host Heracles Almelo in a Dutch Eredivisie clash with both teams coming off contrasting recent form. Excelsior have shown strong home dominance, while Heracles Almelo have struggled on the road but possess a high-scoring away trend.
Key Factors to Consider
- Excelsior have won 7 of their last 10 home matches (70%) and remain defensively solid. Heracles Almelo have lost 8 of their last 10 away games (80%) but have seen Over 2.5 goals in 90% of their away fixtures and both teams score in 60% of their road outings.
- Excelsior won the last H2H 4-0, indicating a significant edge in recent meetings. Heracles have not won in their last several visits to Excelsior.
- No major injuries reported for either side, with both teams expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- Excelsiorβs home advantage is pronounced, with strong crowd support and favorable pitch conditions. Heracles Almeloβs away struggles are exacerbated by travel fatigue and poor defensive discipline on the road.
- Excelsior are fighting to maintain their position above the relegation zone, while Heracles Almelo are battling for mid-table safety and have shown inconsistent motivation in away fixtures.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -109, away: 255, draw: 285 | Excelsior | Not available |
| Spread | home: -0.5, away: 50 | Excelsior -0.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 2.75, under: 2.75 | Over 2.75 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Excelsior 15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Excelsior are favored to win, but Heracles Almeloβs attacking output and tendency for high-scoring away games suggest a multi-goal contest with both teams likely to score.
Predicted Score: 3-1