Match Analysis: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Game Overview
Borussia Dortmund, currently among the Bundesliga top 3, face a struggling Hamburger SV side that sits near the relegation zone. Dortmund enter the match with superior recent form and a strong historical advantage in head-to-head encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Borussia Dortmund hold a 6-1-2 record this season with a +9 goal difference and have picked up 6 points in their last two matches. Hamburger SV have a poor 2-5-2 record, losing 3 in a row, and are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league.
- Dortmund lead historically with 15 wins to Hamburg's 9, including winning the last 4 encounters. The teams have not met since 2017/18, but Dortmund's dominance is clear.
- No critical injuries reported that would significantly impair Dortmund's starting lineup. Hamburg have some squad challenges but no standout absences confirmed.
- Match at Hamburg's home ground with the home side under pressure to improve results. Dortmund have to rebound quickly after a taxing trip to Manchester but show solid mental fortitude.
- Hamburg fighting to avoid relegation and improve their league position, but Dortmund motivated to close gap on league leaders Bayern and Leipzig, maintaining strong title challenge momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 345, away: -145, draw: 320 | Borussia Dortmund | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | hamburger_sv: -105, borussia_dortmund: -115, line: 75 | Borussia Dortmund -0.75 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: 100, under: -120, line: 3.25 | Under 3.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Borussia Dortmund 10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.25 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Borussia Dortmund moneyline win
Predicted Score: 1-2