Match Analysis: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: William R. Johnson Coliseum
Game Overview
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks host Arkansas St Red Wolves in an early season NCAAB matchup with both teams starting 1-0. Arkansas State enters as a slight favorite on the spread and moneyline with a modest total points line set near 152.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are off to solid starts at 1-0 this season, but recent form indicates Arkansas State has a slight edge, supported by better betting trends and simulations favoring them over Stephen F. Austin.
- Limited recent data available, but simulations and models allocate Arkansas State a 57% win probability over Stephen F. Austinβs 43%, indicating historical or stylistic advantages.
- No reported injuries affecting either team ahead of this game, implying full-strength lineups.
- Game played at Stephen F. Austin's home court, which might favor the Lumberjacks; however, Arkansas State shows strong motivation and better betting market confidence.
- Both teams have 1-0 records, but Arkansas Stateβs recent analytics and betting confidence suggest higher motivation to maintain momentum and cover the spread.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -135 for Arkansas State, +115 for Stephen F. Austin | Arkansas State | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | -115 for Arkansas State -1.5, -105 for Stephen F. Austin +1.5 | Arkansas State -1.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
| Over/under | -115 Over 152.5, -105 Under 152.5 | Under 152.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arkansas State to win outright and cover the -1.5 spread, with the game going under the total points line of 152.5.
Predicted Score: Arkansas State 76, Stephen F. Austin 65