Match Analysis: Brown Bears vs Siena Saints – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pizzitola Sports Center, Providence, RI
Game Overview
Siena Saints (1-0) face the Brown Bears (0-0) in a non-conference matchup at the Pizzitola Sports Center. Siena enters as slight favorites, but the line is tight, reflecting Brown's recent dominance over MAAC opponents and Siena's injury concerns.
Key Factors to Consider
- Siena started the season 1-0 but is missing key guard Marcus Jackson due to a knee injury. Brown finished last season 14-13, ranked 225th nationally in scoring (72.2 PPG) and 168th in defense (71.6 PPG allowed). Their offensive efficiency and rebounding are below average, but they have a strong home record (8-6) and have historically performed well against MAAC teams.
- Brown is 11-1 SU and 10-1 ATS in its last 12 games against MAAC opponents, indicating a significant edge in this matchup type.
- Siena's Marcus Jackson (G) is out with a knee injury, weakening their backcourt and perimeter scoring.
- The game is at Brown's home venue, which has historically provided a boost for the Bears. The total is set at 144.5, slightly above the average of both teams' scoring outputs last season.
- Brown is motivated to start the season strong at home and continue their recent success against MAAC teams. Siena is looking to build on their opening win but faces a tough road test without a key player.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 100, away: -122 | Brown Bears | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | home: 1.5 -114, away: -1.5 -106 | Brown Bears +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 144.5 -116, under: 144.5 -108 | Under 144.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brown Bears 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 144.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 144.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brown Bears to win outright and cover the spread, with the game staying under the total.
Predicted Score: Brown Bears 70, Siena Saints 68