Match Analysis: Estoril vs Arouca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: António Coimbra da Mota Stadium
Game Overview
Estoril hosts Arouca in a mid-table Primeira Liga clash vital for both teams to improve standings. Estoril has a slight form edge boosted by a recent 4-0 home win, while Arouca struggles for consistency away. Both teams have scored but also conceded regularly, suggesting a moderately open game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estoril is in better recent form with a dominant 4-0 home victory in their last match, holding 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses at home this season. Arouca has been less consistent, with more away defeats and lower goal output compared to Estoril's 15 home goals versus Arouca's 10 away.
- H2H record over 20 matches is balanced: Estoril 7 wins, Arouca 8 wins, 5 draws. Their last meeting ended 1-1. Average goals per game in this fixture is 2.85, indicating moderately scoring contests.
- No significant injury news impacting starting lineups for either side has been reported recently, so both teams should be near full strength.
- Playing at home gives Estoril an advantage in familiar conditions. Weather or travel disruptions are not reported. The match timing allows full rest for Estoril after prior strong performance.
- Both teams are motivated to climb the league table, but Estoril's recent commanding win can boost confidence and desire to consolidate home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -101 | Estoril | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | -122 | Estoril -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | -115 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Estoril 15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Estoril Moneyline
Predicted Score: 2-1