Match Analysis: KK Crvena zvezda vs Panathinaikos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Belgrade, Serbia (Home of KK Crvena zvezda)
Game Overview
EuroLeague showdown between Crvena zvezda, strong at home, and a competitive Panathinaikos side with better recent head-to-head success. Both teams in good form, but Crvena zvezda edges in standings and home-court dominance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Crvena zvezda has a stronger record this season (6-2, 75% win rate) vs. Panathinaikos (5-3, 62.5%). Crvena zvezda scores 87.75 PPG and allows 81.63 PPG; Panathinaikos scores 89.13 PPG but allows 87.63 PPG. Crvena zvezda is tough at home (4-0 this EuroLeague season, 6-0 last 10 home games).[3] The teamβs defensive edge and home-court advantage are key.
- Panathinaikos leads the all-time H2H series 14-8, but the last 10 meetings are closer (8-7 for Panathinaikos). However, Crvena zvezda has won 8 of their last 10 overall, including 6 of 10 at home, showing recent improvement.[3][8] The most recent H2H matchups have been tight, with Panathinaikos winning by narrow margins, but Crvena zvezda is trending up.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest available info.
- Crvena zvezdaβs home crowd is a major advantageβthey are extremely strong at home and historically underperform less frequently there. Belgradeβs atmosphere is a noted external edge.
- Both teams are in playoff contention, but Crvena zvezda is fighting to keep pace at the top of the table, suggesting higher motivation. Panathinaikos is also motivated, but recent H2H confidence could be offset by the home/away context.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Crvena zvezda -142 / Panathinaikos +120 | Crvena zvezda | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Crvena zvezda -2.5 -108 / Panathinaikos +2.5 -112 | Crvena zvezda -2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 172.5 -108 / Under 172.5 -112 | Under 172.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | KK Crvena zvezda -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 172.5 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 172.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Crvena zvezda wins, covers the spread, and the game goes under 172.5, leveraging home-court edge, defensive discipline, and historical under trends.
Predicted Score: Crvena zvezda 86 β Panathinaikos 81