Match Analysis: Sassuolo vs Genoa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-03
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Game Overview
Sassuolo hosts Genoa in a Serie A fixture where Sassuolo is in better form and playing at home, while Genoa struggles both offensively and defensively, anchored at the bottom of the table.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sassuolo has won 3 of their last 5 matches and shows solid tactical discipline, particularly at home, while Genoa has lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring just 4 goals in 9 matches and struggling on the road.
- Recent encounters favor Sassuolo, including a recent 2-1 away win against Genoa, indicating their capability to break down Genoa’s defense.
- No major injury updates were highlighted in the sources, suggesting both teams should be near full strength, maintaining their typical tactical setups.
- Playing at Mapei Stadium provides Sassuolo with home advantage, supported by local fan presence and familiar pitch conditions.
- Genoa is under significant pressure to avoid relegation, but current poor morale and recent results reduce their chances, while Sassuolo aims to consolidate a strong mid-table position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sassuolo +145, Genoa +220, Draw +200 | Sassuolo | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Sassuolo -0.25 +108, Genoa +25 -128 | Sassuolo -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2 -118, Under 2 -102 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sassuolo 35% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sassuolo at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sassuolo moneyline win; Sassuolo -0.25 spread; Under 2.5 goals total
Predicted Score: 2-1