Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Vasco da Gama hosts São Paulo in a crucial Brasileirão Serie A clash. Vasco is in strong home form, while São Paulo has struggled away and is inconsistent overall. The match is expected to be tight, with both teams having motivation to secure points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vasco da Gama has won 6, lost 1, and drawn 3 in their last 10 matches, with a strong home record (7 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses in 15 home games). São Paulo has won 3, lost 7, and drawn 0 in their last 10, with poor away form (only 3 wins in 10 away matches). Vasco averages 3.1 goals per game at home, while São Paulo averages 2.0 goals per game overall.
- In the last 10 meetings, São Paulo has won 5, Vasco 3, and 2 ended in draws. Over 1.5 goals occurred in 80% of these matches, and over 2.5 goals in 50%. São Paulo has kept a clean sheet in 40% of these games, Vasco in 20%.
- No major injuries reported for either team.
- Vasco da Gama is playing at home, where they have a strong record. The match is being played at Estádio São Januário, which is known for its passionate atmosphere. São Paulo is traveling from São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro, which could have a minor impact on their performance.
- Vasco da Gama is fighting to secure a top-half finish and is motivated to win at home. São Paulo is in a mid-table position and may be less motivated, but they will want to avoid a loss to maintain their position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 118, away: 255, draw: 212 | Vasco da Gama | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -0.25 -115, away: 25 -105 | Vasco da Gama -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: 2 -130, under: 2 110 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vasco da Gama 40% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Vasco da Gama at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vasco da Gama is the clear favorite to win this match, given their strong home form and São Paulo's poor away record. The match is expected to be tight, but Vasco's home advantage and recent form give them the edge.
Predicted Score: 2-0