Match Analysis: Bahia vs Bragantino-SP – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Brazil
Game Overview
Bahia, positioned 5th with strong home form and motivated for a high table finish, hosts 12th placed Bragantino-SP, who have struggled away and show inconsistent recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia has a 53% win rate at home with 11 home wins, showing solid attacking and defensive balance; Bragantino has a weaker away record with only 4 away wins and mixed results recently.
- Recent head-to-head favors Bahia, who have won 3 of last 5 encounters, while Bragantino managed only 1 win; overall Bahia historically performs better at home against Bragantino.
- No major injury concerns reported for Bahia; Bragantino missing some key midfielders affecting creativity and control in central areas, reducing their offensive threat.
- Home crowd support for Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova is strong, and no weather or travel disruptions are expected; Bragantino faces long travel which may impact stamina.
- Bahia is fighting for a top 5 finish, increasing urgency and motivation, while Bragantino with mid-table standing may lack the same intensity to push for points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bahia -157, Bragantino-SP 420, Draw 285 | Bahia | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Bahia -0.75 -120, Bragantino-SP +75 100 | Bahia -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -108, Under 2.5 -112 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bahia 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia moneyline win, Bahia covers -0.75 spread, Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0