Match Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Game Overview
AZ Alkmaar are clear favorites according to recent form, while Sparta Rotterdam are below average in both performance and head-to-head record. AZ’s attacking efficiency and superior historical results against Sparta make them the team to back.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar are in strong form, winning three of their last five away matches and sitting above average in attack and defense. Sparta Rotterdam have only won twice at home this season and are considerably lower on both goals scored and conceded per match than AZ[1][4].
- AZ Alkmaar absolutely dominate the historical matchup, winning 20 of the last 29 meetings and outscoring Sparta 65:23 overall. Sparta have only three wins in 29 attempts, with AZ winning the majority even away from home[4].
- No major injury news reported (current available data does not indicate key absences).
- No major external factors reported—standard Eredivisie conditions expected.
- AZ Alkmaar are firmly in contention for European qualification, giving them an edge in motivation over a Sparta side who are more likely fighting to avoid a relegation battle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +305, away: -136, draw: +315 | AZ Alkmaar to win | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
| Spread | home: +75 (-115), away: -0.75 (-105) | AZ Alkmaar to cover (-0.75) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over: 3 (-122), under: 3 (+102) | Over 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar 16% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: AZ Alkmaar at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar are the stronger side by both recent and historical metrics, and the moneyline and spread offer value against a relatively weak Sparta Rotterdam.
Predicted Score: 1-3 AZ Alkmaar[8]