Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Flamengo, currently 2nd in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, hosts bottom-ranked Sport Recife with a dominant home record and strong recent form. Sport Recife struggle significantly on the road, with poor away form and defensive vulnerabilities. Flamengo is heavily favored to win given squad strength, home advantage, and motivation to solidify league position.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo are unbeaten at home this season with 10 wins and 5 draws, averaging 2.4 goals per match. Sport Recife have only 2 wins in 29 matches, with poor away form (1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses in last 10) and a negative goal difference of -24.
- Historically, Flamengo dominate head-to-head with 4 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss in recent meetings. At home, Flamengo has a 6-1-3 record versus Sport Recife in last 10 encounters.
- No significant injury concerns reported for Flamengo. Sport Recife lineup expected to be at full strength but lack depth compared to hosts.
- No adverse weather or external conditions expected. Match played at Maracanã stadium, favoring Flamengo with a strong home crowd presence.
- Flamengo aims to maintain their high league standing and push for the title; Sport Recife fight to avoid relegation, but morale and form are low, reducing their competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -600, away: +1400, draw: +600 | Home (Flamengo) | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | home: +102, away: -122, spread_line: -2 | Home -2 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: -125, under: +105, line: 2.75 | Under 2.75 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 33% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win decisively
Predicted Score: 2-0