Match Analysis: Santos vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, Brazil
Game Overview
This Campeonato Brasileiro matchup features Santos hosting Fortaleza in a relegation-battle clash. Santos are the slight favorites playing at home but have struggled for consistency. Fortaleza enter on the back of a notable win over Flamengo but have an injury-hit squad. Both teams are fighting to avoid relegation, ensuring high intensity.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos hold 32 points with 8 wins and 13 losses, showing inconsistent form. Fortaleza have 27 points and recent momentum from a 1-0 victory against Flamengo but are generally weaker, especially away.
- Over the last five meetings, Fortaleza have won 3 times, Santos 2 times. The last meeting was a close 3-2 win for Santos, indicating a competitive rivalry with a slight Fortaleza historical edge.
- Fortaleza have several key injuries impacting squad depth, reducing their defensive solidity and attacking options, which could limit their effectiveness away.
- Playing at home with strong fan support benefits Santos. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be typical, no external disruptions noted.
- Both teams face relegation danger, but Fortaleza's recent win over a top side suggests heightened motivation to secure points and change their fortunes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fortaleza: +355, Santos: -136, Draw: +275 | Santos | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Fortaleza +75: -118, Santos -0.75: -102 | Santos -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -112, Under 2.5: -108 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Santos to win on the moneyline, covering -0.75 on the spread and the match to go over 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1