Match Analysis: Montreal Alouettes vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 6:05 PM UTC
- Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC
Game Overview
Playoff-bound but still fighting for seeding, the Montreal Alouettes (10-8) host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8) in a late-season clash. Both teams are closely matched in both record and recent form, but Montreal holds home-field advantage and is favored by the market. The previous meeting (19-10 Winnipeg) was a defensive struggle, continuing a trend of unders and close margins in recent H2H encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alouettes average 24.72 points (home: 21.33), allow 23.89 (home: 21.67). Blue Bombers rank 4th in CFL in both yards and points allowed. Both offenses have struggled in tight matchups, but Montreal's Davis Alexander is fresh off a 328-yard, 2-TD performance, while Winnipeg's Brady Oliveira is healthy and coming off a full session[1][7].
- Winnipeg leads 7-3 since August 2022, including a recent 19-10 victory. Under is 5-0 in Winnipegβs last 5 games and 2-0 in H2H meetings this season. Winnipeg is 4-1 in last 5 Montreal visits, but current market has Montreal as substantial favorites[1][5].
- No major injuries reported for either squad. Oliveira (WPG) is healthy; Alexander (MTL) is in form[7].
- High stakes for final playoff seeding. If Hamilton wins Friday night, Montreal could potentially rest starters, but this seems less likely given tight playoff race. Weather is not a stated factor.
- Both teams fighting for playoff position. Winnipeg needs to avoid crossover, Montreal wants home-field edge. Expect both teams to play starters if seeding is on the line.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | MTL -295, WPG +235 | Montreal Alouettes | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | MTL -6.5 -115, WPG +6.5 -105 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers +6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 48.5 -105, Under 48.5 -115 | Under 48.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montreal Alouettes -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 50% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montreal delivers at home in a low-scoring defensive battle, but Winnipeg covers the inflated spread.
Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 22, Winnipeg Blue Bombers 17