Match Analysis: Casa Pia vs CF Estrela – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior
Game Overview
Casa Pia hosts CF Estrela Amadora in a tightly contested Portugal Primeira Liga match where both teams struggle near the relegation zone. Casa Pia shows slightly better recent form and home advantage, while Estrela have offensive challenges away from home. Historical encounters indicate low scoring and balanced competitiveness.
Key Factors to Consider
- Casa Pia has 2 wins in last 9 matches with a deccent home record but fragile defense. Estrela Amadora struggles on the road with fewer goals scored and a leaky defense, holding just 6 wins overall compared to Casa Pia's 11.
- In 6 matches, Casa Pia and Estrela have won 3 each, with no draws. Their last encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Casa Pia. Matches tend to be low scoring with an average of 1.83 total goals per game.
- No major injury reports affecting starting lineups from available sources; both teams likely fielding expected lineups.
- No significant external disruptions reported. Venue at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior, a neutral-style stadium, may reduce usual home field impact but Casa Pia still holds advantage.
- Both teams are motivated to climb away from lower table relegation threats. Casa Pia slightly more stable with recent form, increasing their push for points at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Casa Pia: 105, CF Estrela: 290, Draw: 215 | Casa Pia | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Casa Pia -0.5: 105, CF Estrela +50: -125 | Casa Pia -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -128, Under 2: 108 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Casa Pia 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Casa Pia to win the match with a low-scoring affair expected.
Predicted Score: 1-0