Match Analysis: SMU Mustangs vs Miami Hurricanes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Game Overview
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (6-1) face the SMU Mustangs (5-3) in an ACC matchup at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Miami is favored by 10.5 points with a total set at 50.5. The Hurricanes are coming off a loss to Louisville but have won 16 of their last 20 games. SMU is 5-3 and has struggled as a double-digit underdog in November, but their offense can make plays and their defense is stout against the run.
Key Factors to Consider
- Miami is averaging 154.4 rushing yards per game, led by Mark Fletcher Jr. (552 yards, 9 TDs). Carson Beck is completing 73.3% of passes for 1,673 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs. SMU has a balanced offense and a defense that bends but doesnβt break. Miami allows just 14.1 points and 270.4 yards per game.
- Miami has won 13 of its last 16 games against non-AP-ranked teams. SMU has lost 20 of its last 22 November games as an underdog.
- No major injuries reported for either team.
- Game is played at SMUβs home stadium. Weather is expected to be clear. Miami is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite and has outright lost twice in this role since last November.
- Miami is seeking to rebound from a loss and maintain ACC title hopes. SMU is motivated to upset a ranked opponent and boost bowl prospects.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 320, away: -410 | Miami Hurricanes | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: 10.5 -105, away: -10.5 -115 | SMU Mustangs +10.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 50.5 -112, under: 50.5 -108 | Under 50.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Hurricanes -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami is the more talented team and should win, but SMUβs home-field advantage and Miamiβs recent struggles as a double-digit favorite suggest the Hurricanes may not cover. The total is set high, but Miamiβs defense is elite and SMUβs offense is inconsistent.
Predicted Score: Miami 27, SMU 20