Match Analysis: Žalgiris vs ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-30
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Žalgiris Arena, Kaunas, Lithuania
Game Overview
A high-stakes Euroleague clash between home side Žalgiris Kaunas and visiting ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne, two evenly matched teams with a 6-6 head-to-head record. Žalgiris enters favored by bookmakers, boasting strong home form and a sturdy defense, while ASVEL relies on balanced scoring and physicality.
Key Factors to Consider
- Žalgiris has shown strong recent form at home with solid defensive performances limiting opponents' scoring. ASVEL has been competitive on the road but less consistent defensively. Both teams have reliable scorers but Žalgiris edges in tempo control and defensive efficiency.
- Equally matched over 12 meetings with 6 wins each. Recent Euroleague games have seen tight contests, with Žalgiris winning the last match by 9 points. Margins typically under or around 8 points, indicating competitive battles.
- No major injuries reported for either side; key players available including ASVEL’s De Colo and Žalgiris’s top contributors.
- Žalgiris benefits from home crowd support and familiarity with venue, enhancing their performance. Travel fatigue for ASVEL could be a minor factor.
- Both teams are motivated to secure early-season success to build confidence and standings in a very competitive Euroleague group.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -360, away: +270 | Žalgiris | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | home: -114, away: -109 | Žalgiris -8 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -112, under: -112 | Under 161.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Žalgiris -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Žalgiris to win; Spread: Žalgiris -8; Over/Under: Under 161.5 points
Predicted Score: Žalgiris 83 – 75 ASVEL