Match Analysis: Genoa vs Cremonese – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Game Overview
Genoa hosts Cremonese in a Serie A clash where both teams have struggled for form, but Genoa have home advantage with a solid defensive style, while Cremonese have been underdogs and less consistent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Genoa are 0-3 in their last 5 matches and 1-4 against the spread, but have been stronger at home showing defensive discipline; Cremonese have poor form overall and lower scoring rates.
- Recent encounters have been tight, with low scoring margins and both teams showing defensive tendencies, suggesting no high-scoring blowouts likely.
- No recent significant injury reports for key players that would drastically alter team strengths.
- Home crowd at Luigi Ferraris favors Genoa; midweek fixture may favor home team accustomed to stadium atmosphere.
- Genoa has stronger motivation to avoid further losses at home, while Cremonese are likely focused on damage limitation and a disciplined defensive approach.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Genoa -115, Cremonese +385, Draw +220 | Genoa moneyline | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Genoa -0.5 -115, Cremonese +50 -105 | Genoa -0.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2 -120, Under 2 +100 | Under 2 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Genoa 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Genoa to win on the moneyline, with the match to produce under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0