Match Analysis: FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-27
- Time: 10:45 PM UTC
- Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Game Overview
MLS Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference: FC Cincinnati (#2 seed, strong finish) hosts Columbus Crew (#7 seed, inconsistent road form).
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Cincinnati ended the regular season brilliantly, winning 4 of their last 5 and averaging 1.91 points per match, with a solid defense (1.18 GA/game, 11 clean sheets)[1]. Columbus Crewβs recent road form is poor, winless in 3 straight away[3].
- Last 10 meetings: COL 5 wins, CIN 2 wins. COL won last matchup 2-4, but overall H2H favors Crew, though with playoff pressure and CIN strength at home, recency is less decisive[2].
- No key injuries reported for either team; both expected to field their best XIs[1].
- Home playoff advantage for FC Cincinnati. Weather/climate unlikely to play a major role at TQL Stadium.
- FC Cincinnati finished 2nd in East; momentum is high. Crew are a lower seed and have struggled away, but are a playoff-tested team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CIN 143, COL 171, Draw 272 | FC Cincinnati Win | β β β ββ 63% |
| Spread | CIN -0.25 (112), COL +25 (-132) | Cincinnati -0.25 (Cincinnati or push) | β β β ββ 67% |
| Over/under | Over 3 (-113), Under 3 (-107) | Over 3 Goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Cincinnati 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: FC Cincinnati at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
FC Cincinnatiβs home edge, late-season form, and defensive solidity outweigh Columbus Crewβs scrappy playoff pedigree and H2H edge, but high stakes and Crewβs attacking capability suggest a close, open match with both teams scoring.
Predicted Score: FC Cincinnati 2 – 1 Columbus Crew SC