Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nilton Santos (Engenhão), Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Santos in a Paulista Campeonato clash where Botafogo holds a moderate home advantage and sits higher in the league standings. Santos struggles away but is capable of scoring, making for a competitive match with potential for low-margin outcomes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has a solid recent home form with 5 wins in last 10 games, compared to Santos with only 3 wins away with a mixed record. Botafogo has a positive goal difference (+13), whereas Santos has a negative one (-12).
- In recent encounters, Botafogo holds a slight edge having won their last meeting 1-0. H2H results show Botafogo winning 6 matches while Santos has 2 wins in 11 meetings, with 5 draws.
- No explicit absences or injury reports noted in recent data; squad appears close to full strength for both sides.
- The game is played at Botafogo’s home ground where they have shown consistent performances; weather and pitch conditions are expected to favor the home team.
- Botafogo, sitting higher in standings and coming off recent victory over Santos, will be motivated to maintain momentum; Santos aims to improve away form to avoid relegation trouble.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: -128, Santos: 355, Draw: 250 | Botafogo | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Botafogo -0.5: -125, Santos +50: 105 | Botafogo -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Botafogo moneyline to win, with a narrow margin expected; also back Over 2.25 goals given offensive tendencies of Santos away and Botafogo’s scoring capabilities.
Predicted Score: 2-1