Match Analysis: Sassuolo vs AS Roma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Game Overview
AS Roma enters this Serie A clash as the favorite, with stronger away form and a slight edge in recent results, but Sassuolo are in good home form and have shown resilience, making this a competitive fixture expected to be tight and low-scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Roma has won 7 of their last 10 away games (70%) and aim to maintain a 100% away record this season, while Sassuolo have won 6 of their 10 home matches (60%) and displayed tactical discipline. Both teams have struggled to frequently score more than 2 goals in recent matches.
- Recent encounters are balanced with competitive matches; both sides have managed to score but with low margins, pointing to a tight contest.
- Sassuolo have doubts over Paz, Pieragnolo, Muhamerovic, and Boloca, potentially weakening their squad depth. Roma’s left-back Angelino is doubtful but no other fresh injury concerns reported, keeping the squad mostly intact.
- The match takes place at Sassuolo’s home stadium, giving them a minor home advantage, but Roma’s strong away form counters this. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be standard with no reported disruptions.
- Roma is motivated to keep their unbeaten away record this season, while Sassuolo is confident after recent positive results and will seek to exploit Roma’s defensive vulnerabilities from recent home losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -116 | AS Roma Win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | -115 | AS Roma -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | -105 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Roma Moneyline Win
Predicted Score: 1-1