Match Analysis: AS Monaco vs Toulouse – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Louis II, Fontvieille, Monaco
Game Overview
AS Monaco hosts Toulouse in a crucial Ligue 1 clash, with both teams sitting just one point apart in the standings (Monaco 7th, Toulouse 8th)[1][4]. Monaco holds a slight edge in recent form, with slightly more goals scored but also more conceded than Toulouse[4]. The last direct encounter ended in a 1-1 draw in March 2025[3]. Both sides are chasing European places, ensuring high motivation.
Key Factors to Consider
- Monaco has a 4-2-2 record (14 points, 17 GF, 13 GA) compared to Toulouse's 4-1-3 (13 points, 15 GF, 12 GA). Monaco's home record is slightly better (3-1-0 at home) but both teams are inconsistent defensively[4].
- Recent H2H matches have been close, with the last two encounters ending in a draw and a narrow 1-2 win for Monaco. No significant dominance by either side in past matchups[1][3].
- No prominent injury updates available in the provided data, suggesting both teams are near full strength.
- No major external factors affecting the matchday; expected normal playing conditions.
- Both teams are fighting for European qualification, with neither side clear of midtable concerns. Motivation is high for both.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Monaco -120, Draw 285, Toulouse 285 | AS Monaco | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Monaco -0.5 -118, Toulouse 50 -102 | AS Monaco -0.5 | β β β ββ 54% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 -125, Under 2.75 105 | Over 2.75 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Monaco -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Monaco's slightly superior home form and attacking output justify a narrow home win, despite Toulouse's resilience on the counter and in recent encounters.
Predicted Score: 2-1 Monaco