Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Game Overview
Two SEC rivals struggling in conference play meet, with both desperate to turn their seasons around. Arkansas is favored by 1.5 despite a worse overall record and similarly poor conference mark. Arkansas possesses a potent rushing attack and explosive offense, while Auburn fields a strong run defense but has lacked consistency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas ranks 14th nationally in rushing offense (225.3 ypg) but 120th in run defense (188.7 ypg allowed) and 121st in points allowed (32.7 ppg). Auburn boasts the 10th-best run defense (87.1 ypg allowed) and ranks 16th in first-half opponent points per game (7.9). Auburn has lost five straight conference games; Arkansas is 1-4 in their last five overall and 0-3 in conference play.
- The underdog has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. The road team has covered the spread in the last 6 meetings. Each of the last 7 October matchups went OVER the total, while Auburn’s last 6 games have gone UNDER.
- No major injuries reported in the latest available information.
- 61°F, 37% chance of rain, 13 mph wind—conditions unlikely to drastically impact play. No significant off-field distractions reported.
- Both teams are 0-X in SEC play and desperately seeking a conference win to salvage their seasons. Recent trend: the favorite has won each of Auburn’s last 8 games. Arkansas has suffered multiple close road losses, but this game is at home and Arkansas has covered the spread in 80% of October games.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas -115 / Auburn -105 | Auburn Tigers ML | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
| Spread | Arkansas -1.5 (-105) / Auburn +1.5 (-115) | Auburn Tigers +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 55.5 (-115) / Under 55.5 (-105) | Over 55.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 55.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This is a classic ‘last team with the ball wins’ SEC slugfest. Arkansas’ offense and home advantage provide a slight edge, but expect a game decided by a field goal either way. Auburn’s run defense will keep it close, but Arkansas’s knack for staying within the number—especially in October—makes them the smarter play here.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 27, Auburn 31
