Match Analysis: Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
Game Overview
The Edmonton Elks host provincial rivals Calgary Stampeders in a late-season CFL matchup with Grey Cup playoff implications. Calgary is favored by sportsbooks, but Edmonton's recent form under new quarterback Cody Fajardo points to a much tighter contest than standings and odds suggest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Calgary has clinched a playoff spot and sits among Grey Cup contenders (+500). Edmonton, after a 1-6 start, has won three straight with Fajardo, whose 111.9 QB rating and 7/3 TD-INT ratio have sparked the offense. Edmontonβs defense, leaky early, has allowed 22 points or fewer in their last three games.
- Edmonton has won the last four meetings, a trend that defies season-long narratives and suggests a mental edge in this rivalry.
- No major injuries reported for either side that would meaningfully impact the lines.
- Late-season divisional rivalry; both teams motivated, but Edmontonβs playoff hopes are slim, while Calgary is tuning up for the postseason.
- Calgary wants momentum heading into playoffs; Edmonton is playing for pride and to finish strong, but also to continue dominance in the rivalry.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Calgary -235, Edmonton +195 | Edmonton Elks to win | β β βββ 48% |
| Spread | Calgary -4.5 -118, Edmonton +4.5 -104 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 53.5 -110, Under 53.5 -110 | Under 53.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders 45% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 53.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Calgary Stampeders at 45% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This matchup will be closer than the odds suggest, with Edmontonβs recent surge under Fajardo and Calgaryβs tendency to keep games tight. Expect a competitive, hard-fought game with Edmonton covering the spread and the total staying under.
Predicted Score: Edmonton Elks 24, Calgary Stampeders 23