Match Analysis: AC Milan vs Pisa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-24
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Game Overview
AC Milan hosts Pisa in the Serie A at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Milan are currently in strong form with a 5-1-1 record and 16 points, while Pisa are struggling at 0-3-4 with just 3 points. Milan will be missing key winger Christian Pulisic due to a hamstring injury, but their overall quality and home advantage remain significant.
Key Factors to Consider
- AC Milan is in excellent form (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and has scored decisively, whereas Pisa is winless with 4 losses and 3 draws so far. Milan also has notable attacking talent including Rafael LeΓ£o and Luka Modric, while Pisa has shown defensive vulnerabilities.
- Recent matches between these teams heavily favor AC Milan who generally dominate Pisa, often winning by multiple goals due to superior tactical and personnel quality.
- Christian Pulisic is confirmed out for about a month with a right hamstring injury, impacting Milan's attacking options. No major injuries reported for Pisa but their squad has weaker depth.
- The match is played at Milan's home ground which historically provides significant advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are typical for the season with no reported disruptions.
- Milan is motivated to maintain their top-table position and build momentum towards the title race, while Pisa is desperate to claim their first win of the season and avoid relegation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan: -340, Pisa: +825, Draw: +475 | AC Milan | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | AC Milan -1.5: -120, Pisa +1.5: +100 | AC Milan -1.5 | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -115, Under 2.75: -105 | Over 2.75 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AC Milan to win (moneyline), AC Milan -1.5 goals (spread), Over 2.75 goals (over/under)
Predicted Score: 3-1