Match Analysis: Lyon vs FC Basel – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-23
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: Groupama Stadium, Lyon, France
Game Overview
Lyon, playing at home, faces FC Basel in a crucial UEFA Europa League Group phase match, with both teams showing solid recent performance in their domestic leagues and European fixtures.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lyon is unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 Europa League matches, showing strong continental form despite recent close Ligue 1 losses. Basel has good momentum with recent 3-0 wins domestically and a 2-0 victory over Stuttgart in Europe, but less consistent overall.
- Recent H2H data show a competitive balance with both sides winning games; however, Lyon’s home advantage at Groupama Stadium historically tips close fixtures in their favor.
- Lyon will miss Rémy Descamps, Orel Mangala, and Ernest Nuamah to injury, slightly reducing midfield and attacking depth. Basel’s Finn van Breemen and Keigo Tsunemoto are sidelined, impacting their defensive lineup.
- The match’s importance for group standings coupled with Lyon’s home support and familiar conditions at Groupama Stadium create a motivating atmosphere for the home side.
- Both teams need points to advance, but Lyon’s unbeaten European run and stronger position in group motivate a confident and attacking approach at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lyon: -184, Draw: 350, FC Basel: 420 | Lyon | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Lyon (-1): -118, FC Basel (+1): -112 | Lyon -1 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 3: -130, Under 3: 100 | Over 3 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lyon 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lyon to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: 2-1