Match Analysis: Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-22
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Game Overview
The Memphis Grizzlies host the New Orleans Pelicans in an early-season matchup featuring two teams searching for consistency. Memphis enters as moderate favorites, with both teams having struggled out of the gate, each with only one win in their last five games[1][3]. The Grizzlies are slight favorites but the Pelicans have shown the ability to cover spreads, which may add value to their side. The total is set high, reflecting both teams' offensive talent and suspect defenses, particularly New Orleans' recent defensive lapses[4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Grizzlies are 1-4, Pelicans are 2-2. Neither team is in top form, but Memphis is trending slightly better with a 3-2 ATS record in their last five games, while New Orleans is 1-4 in their last five[1][3]. Both defenses have been inconsistent, with Memphis allowing more points than the Pelicans score on average last season[2].
- Limited recent head-to-head data, but the Grizzlies are 3-2 ATS in their last five against the Pelicans[1]. The Pelicans have a decent record ATS (16-7-1) but that stat is from last season[2].
- No specific, impactful injury updates available in the dataβassume both teams are near full strength.
- The game is at FedExForum, which gives a slight edge to Memphis, but no unusual travel or scheduling factors mentioned.
- Both teams are looking to right the ship early in the season. The Pelicans have something to prove defensively, while the Grizzlies are hungry for their first home success[4].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | MEM -180, NOP +150 | New Orleans Pelicans | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | MEM -3.5 (-115), NOP +3.5 (-105) | New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | OVER 236.5 (-110), UNDER 236.5 (-110) | OVER 236.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New Orleans Pelicans 45% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 236.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New Orleans Pelicans at 45% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This is a close matchup with Memphis favored, but value lies with New Orleans to either cover or win outright. The total is set high, reflecting both teamsβ offensive upside and defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Memphis Grizzlies 117, New Orleans Pelicans 123
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